Mass Myanmar rebel ceasefires clear roadblocks to further reform

Rebel leaders, from left, Khun Myint Tun of the Pa-O Nationalities Liberation Organisation, Saw Lah Pwe of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army, Ywet Sit of the Restoration Council of Shan State and Mutu Say Po, chairman of the Karen National Union sign the ceasefire in Naypyitaw on October 15, 2015.

Myanmar ended its six-decade civil war with eight of 15 separatist rebel groups yesterday with the signing of a ceasefire that supporters hope is the first step to real ­political reform and lasting peace. 

President Thein Sein, who goes to the polls in the biggest test of his country’s nascent — if flawed — democracy on November 8, hailed the agreement as an “historic gift from us to the generations of the future” at a signing ceremony in the capital, Naypyidaw, as critics dismissed it as an election ploy.
“Even though the agreement is not nationwide yet, we will try harder to gain the agreement with other groups,” he conceded at a ceremony.
Myanmar’s most powerful armed groups, the United Wa State Army, Shan State Army and the Kachin Independence Organisation, remain outside the national ceasefire agreement.
All three control large provincial areas on the border with China, prompting accusations that Chinese authorities bordering those regions played a spoiler role to protect smuggling and ­illegal logging.
Thein Sein, the former military leader who initiated Myanmar’s first political and economic reforms in 2011 after half a century of draconian rule, has held on-again off-again talks with rebels to end the civil conflicts, seen as a roadblock to continued progress.
Reform and investment flows have slowed drastically and the civil unrest blocking development in some of the poorest parts of the country is not helping.
More importantly for pro-democracy activists, however, ending the country’s civil wars will remove the military’s justification for its interference in political life.
The military holds an effective veto on all parliamentary decisions through its control of 25 per cent of parliamentary seats, and has so far stymied attempts at constitutional change, including a push for a popularly elected president, and a divestment of some power to the states and provinces — a key demand of rebel groups.
The main opposition National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, has lobbied for the removal of a clause preventing citizens married to foreigners from holding high office — a law believed to have been passed to prevent Ms Suu Kyi from becoming president.
Kyaw Lin Oo, a political analyst and head of the People’s Forum Working Group, said the NCA was “an important step because after the ceasefire agreement there will be political dialogue. Then we can start to negotiate how to build a federal system”.
Talks will begin in the next fortnight between signatories to the agreement on a mechanism to deal with breaches of the ceasefire.
“I want to see what that mechanism (achieves) and then we need to see some real change in the constitution through political dialogue. That is my goal,” he said.
Myanmar’s ethnic rebellions, which began soon after independence from Britain in 1948, ­revolve largely around demands for control of natural resources and provincial autonomy.
Those rebellions have led to military and human rights abuses and an overwhelming mistrust of both the military and politicians.
“We have to keep fighting for our freedom, for our political rights,” said Thar Phone Kyaw, general secretary of Ta’ang National Liberation Army, which has also refused to sign.
He insisted no ceasefire would be agreed without assurances they would get the federal union promised by independence leader Aung San more than 60 years ago.
But some observers are optimistic the benefits reaped by early signatories to the agreement, most pointedly their removal from Myanmar’s list of “unlawful associations”, will eventually lure the holdout rebels to the table.
The Karen National Liberation Army, Arakan Liberation Party, Chin National Front, Pa-O ­National Liberation Organisation and Democratic Karen Benevolent Army were all removed from the list on Tuesday.
“It’s going to allow them to move around their territory, talk to their townships, build up ­relationships with people on the ground that they have not been able to do because before this they were called illegal,” Myanmar specialist Larry Jagan said.
Kyaw Lin Oo, an advocate for a national unity government comprising the two major parties and minority ethnic representatives, says that can only be a good thing.
“The general public don’t trust the military or the government and they expect too much of Aung San Suu Kyi. They think if she is in government she can change everything but in reality she can’t be president and she is not a ­magician.”